Matt Leeburn » The Black Swan http://www.mattleeburn.com/blog Information to make you think. Sun, 03 Jan 2010 10:15:59 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.1 The Turkey and the Butcher http://www.mattleeburn.com/blog/2009/09/the-turkey-and-the-butcher/ http://www.mattleeburn.com/blog/2009/09/the-turkey-and-the-butcher/#comments Sun, 20 Sep 2009 23:13:11 +0000 Matt Leeburn http://www.mattleeburn.com/blog/?p=16 This is a transcript of an interview Charlie Rose has with Nicholas Taleb on his book, The Black Swan.

NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB:  In the book, I have the story of a turkey that is fed for 1,000 days by a butcher, and every day confirms to the turkey and the turkey’s economics department and the turkey’s risk management department and the turkey’s analytical department that the butcher loves turkeys, and every day brings more confidence to the statement.  So it’s fed for 1,000 days…

CHARLIE ROSE:  Gets fatter and fatter and fatter.

NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB:  Fatter and fatter.  On the day when its comfort will be at its maximum, there is going to be a surprise.  There will be a surprise for the turkey.

CHARLIE ROSE:  Yes.

NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB:  There will be a surprise for the turkey’s economics department, all those Ph.D.’s.  Will it be — after all, there’s maximum (inaudible)…

CHARLIE ROSE:  But it’s not a surprise for the butcher, is it?

NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB:  Not a surprise for Charlie Rose as well.  Not a surprise for humans.  It’s a surprise for the turkey. So the whole idea here is we are not to be a turkey.  And who is a turkey? Bankers.

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